The latest data from the Central Bank of The Bahamas reveals that despite the government’s claims of booming air and sea arrivals, air arrivals have actually declined in eight of the first nine months of 2025 when compared to 2024. The Central Bank’s Monthly Economic and Financial Developments report shows a drop of about 1.9 percent, or roughly 27,800 passengers. August saw the steepest fall at more than 6 percent. January declined nearly 5 percent. These are our supposed peak periods, yet the numbers continue to slide.
And just a couple of months ago, Deputy Prime Minister Chester Cooper announced that The Bahamas had broken tourism records for three consecutive years and suggested 2025 would be another record-setter.
But the Central Bank’s own reporting exposes the truth. The government is blending cruise passengers and air arrivals to sell the illusion of a booming sector. Cruise visitors typically spend far less, and air arrivals include thousands of people who only transit through The Bahamas. They are not hotel guests, they are not booking tours, and they are not supporting local businesses. The higher-spending stopover market is weakening, and many islands are already seeing fewer overnight visitors. Businesses feel it. Workers feel it. Communities feel it.
The empty boasts about top-line arrival numbers only serve to deny the troubling reality. The critical stopover segment has been in decline for a year and a half, even as most Caribbean destinations continue to record increases in stopover tourism. While our regional counterparts are implementing strategies to grow high-value tourism, The Bahamas is moving in the opposite direction.
This is not the first time the government’s story has collapsed under scrutiny. The International Monetary Fund recently found that the government’s reported tourism revenue may be overstated by as much as $923 million. That is a gap equal to 6.5 percent of national GDP. Nearly $1 billion in tourism earnings that may not exist.
The Davis Administration keeps pushing talking points that sound good, but the facts tell a different story. From air arrivals to revenue reporting, to the so-called “historic surplus,” this government continues to present a version of reality that does not match what Bahamians see in their daily lives. Costs are up. Activity is down. And the government is celebrating headlines built on inflated data.
From yachting to air arrivals, every inflated claim from the PLP must now be viewed with skepticism. Marina operators, charter companies, and business owners have reported steep declines in activity and spending. So, when the DPM says “we’ve broken records,” the Bahamian people must ask: By whose numbers? Based on what data?